A ROMAN STYLE COLLAPSE

Throughout history, collapses have occurred many times. No matter how great they are, no civilization is immune to the vulnerabilities that may lead societies to the end. The Ottoman Empire, The Maya Civilization and/or The Roman Empire are three of those civilizations that were the super-powers of their time. No one, during  those times, could forecast their  collapse especially when they reached the peak of their  power. Now, modern western society is the dominant power in the world. It can be compared to a stable bicycle whose wheels are kept spinning by economic growth. Should that forward propelling motion slow, values shaping the society- democracy, individual liberties and social tolerance- would start to teeter. Regardless of how great the things are in the present moment, the situation can always change. While it is impossible to predict the future precisely, history and mathematics can give us some hints about the long-term continuation of western societies. In view of the fact that the economic growth of Europe has slowed down lately and  the number of conflicts between the neighbours of western nations has significantly  increased, collapse now is a threat for the western society , however, it is not too late to take precautions because there are still some actions which can be taken to prevent a total societal collapse. 

To begin with, there are several factors that can lead to global or localcollapse. Ecological strain and economic stratification are two of the most important factors besides the impact of humans  on the environment, climate change and relations with neighbours. The ecological category is the more widely recognised path to potential doom, especially in terms of the depletion of natural resources such as forests, fossil fuels or groundwater, all of which can be worsened by  climate change. On the other hand, economic stratification may lead to collapse on its own. Elites push the society to instability by hoarding huge quantities of wealth as well as resources. They leave little or none for commoners who actually support them with their labour force. Consequently, the working-class crashes because the portion of wealth allocated to them is insufficient. This process is followed by the collapse of elites due to the absence of labour. The inequalities which can be seen today point to such disharmonies. For example, the top ten percent of global income earners are responsible for almost as much total greenhouse emissions as the bottom ninety percent combined. In addition, about  half of the world population live on less than three dollars per day..There is a limit to how long this situation can last. . If this is overshot by too much, collapses become inevitable. The World’s poorest countries will be among the first affected by the effects of collapse. Syria can be an example of this. They enjoyed high productivity  rates for a time, which fuelled rapid population growth. A severe drought combined with groundwater shortages left large numbers of people unemployed and desperate. After that, existing ethnic tensions increased, creating fertile grounds for  violence. Furthermore, poor governance tipped the country into a civil war in 2011.                                                                                                                  

Apart from the Syria case, according to Homer-Dixon,the increasing occurrence of sudden or unexpected changes in the world order such as the 2008 economic crisis, Brexit or the election of Donald Trump is another sign that the world is going into/ entering a dangerous zone. Some hints might be acquired from the past for how the future will be. The process of the rise and fall of the Roman Empire is a good example of this. By the end of the 100 BC, Rome had spread across the Mediterranean. They should have stopped there because transportation by sea was economical but transportation across land was expensive and slow. But they felt empowered to expand to other regions by land. That caused costs to run up exponentially. As stated in thermodynamics, it requires energy to maintain any system, and human society is not an exception. By the 3^rd century, Rome was adding new things such as a double-sized army, a cavalry, courts, subdivided provinces just to maintain its status quo and keep from sliding backwards.

Up to now, western society has largely/ for the most part  been able to postpone similar precipitators of collapse through fossil fuels and industrial technology.  Investing in complexity as a problem-solving method is all very well but it reaches a point of diminishing returns and vulnerability to collapse. Paralleling to Rome, westerns societies’ collapse will be preceded by a retraction of people and resources back to homelands. As poorer nations continue to disintegrate amid conflicts and disasters, enormous waves of migrants will stream to more stable states. Western societies will respond to this with restrictions and the banning of immigration. They will heighten border security. Meanwhile, a widening gap between rich and poor people will push societies to further instability from inside. Europe will feel the pressure first on the grounds that it is close to the Middle East and Africa- the heart of conflicts. The   US will likely (is likely to..) hold out longer because it is surrounded by ocean buffers.  Western society is not going to face a total collapse but they will lose their friendly nature and values shaping their lives because inequity is going to explode. Randers asserts that democratic liberal society will fail while strong governments like China will be the winners.

After analysing  the process briefly, it is not difficult to say what could be done to prevent collapse. Before that, it is also important to examine why nations did not take any precautions and why they could not  understand what was happening. It is simply because of the conflict of interests between the short-term interests of the decision-making elites and the long-term interests of the society as a whole. That is, business elites were doing  advantageous things for themselves but they were to the detriment of the  whole society. Overall, turning the present unsustainable course into a maintainable course is simply the solution of that problem. That is, making rational choices, such as reducing the inequality and population growth, is the key to eradicating this problem. Using science to guide decisions, paired with extraordinary leadership and exceptional goodwill, human society can progress to higher levels of well-being. In brief, all major threats we are facing today are problems entirely of our own making. Again, we are the ones who will eradicate this. We should not forget that this is a challenging process. If we do  10 things correctly but 1 thing wrong, we may face a total collapse. We should choose what to do and implement it after thinking twice.

                                                                                                                         ENİS KAAN BİRGİN