Throughout
history, collapses have occurred many times. No matter how great they are, no
civilization is immune to the vulnerabilities that may lead societies to the
end. The Ottoman Empire, The Maya Civilization and/or The Roman Empire are
three of those civilizations that were the super-powers of their time. No one, during
those times, could forecast their collapse especially when they reached the peak
of their power. Now, modern western
society is the dominant power in the world. It can be compared to a stable
bicycle whose wheels are kept spinning by economic growth. Should that forward
propelling motion slow, values shaping the society- democracy, individual
liberties and social tolerance- would start to teeter. Regardless of how great
the things are in the present moment, the situation can always change. While it
is impossible to predict the future precisely, history and mathematics can give
us some hints about the long-term continuation of western societies. In view of
the fact that the economic growth of Europe has slowed down lately and the number of conflicts between the neighbours
of western nations has significantly increased,
collapse now is a threat for the western society , however, it is not too late
to take precautions because there are still some actions which can be taken to
prevent a total societal collapse.
To begin with,
there are several factors that can lead to global or localcollapse.
Ecological strain and economic stratification are two of the most important factors
besides the impact of humans on the
environment, climate change and relations with neighbours. The ecological
category is the more widely recognised path to potential doom, especially in
terms of the depletion of natural resources such as forests, fossil fuels or
groundwater, all of which can be worsened by climate change. On the other hand, economic
stratification may lead to collapse on its own. Elites push the society to
instability by hoarding huge quantities of wealth as well as resources. They
leave little or none for commoners who actually support them with their labour
force. Consequently, the working-class crashes because the portion of wealth
allocated to them is insufficient. This process is followed by the collapse of
elites due to the absence of labour. The inequalities which can be seen today
point to such disharmonies. For example, the top ten percent of global income
earners are responsible for almost as much total greenhouse emissions as the
bottom ninety percent combined. In addition, about half of the world population live on less than
three dollars per day..There is a limit to how long this situation can last. .
If this is overshot by too much, collapses become inevitable. The World’s
poorest countries will be among the first affected by the effects of collapse.
Syria can be an example of this. They enjoyed high productivity rates for a time, which fuelled rapid
population growth. A severe drought combined with groundwater shortages left
large numbers of people unemployed and desperate. After that, existing ethnic
tensions increased, creating fertile grounds for violence. Furthermore, poor governance tipped
the country into a civil war in 2011.
Apart from the
Syria case, according to Homer-Dixon,the increasing occurrence of sudden or
unexpected changes in the world order such as the 2008 economic crisis, Brexit
or the election of Donald Trump is another sign that the world is going into/
entering a dangerous zone. Some hints might be acquired from the past for how
the future will be. The process of the rise and fall of the Roman Empire is a
good example of this. By the end of the 100 BC, Rome had spread across the
Mediterranean. They should have stopped there because transportation by sea was
economical but transportation across land was expensive and slow. But they felt
empowered to expand to other regions by land. That caused costs to run up
exponentially. As stated in thermodynamics, it requires energy to maintain any
system, and human society is not an exception. By the 3rd century,
Rome was adding new things such as a double-sized army, a cavalry, courts,
subdivided provinces just to maintain its status quo and keep from sliding
backwards.
Up to now,
western society has largely/ for the most part been able to postpone similar precipitators of
collapse through fossil fuels and industrial technology. Investing in complexity as a problem-solving
method is all very well but it reaches a point of diminishing returns and
vulnerability to collapse. Paralleling to Rome, westerns societies’ collapse
will be preceded by a retraction of people and resources back to homelands. As
poorer nations continue to disintegrate amid conflicts and disasters, enormous
waves of migrants will stream to more stable states. Western societies will
respond to this with restrictions and the banning of immigration. They will
heighten border security. Meanwhile, a widening gap between rich and poor
people will push societies to further instability from inside. Europe will feel
the pressure first on the grounds that it is close to the Middle East and
Africa- the heart of conflicts. The US
will likely (is likely to..) hold out longer because it is surrounded by ocean
buffers. Western society is not going to
face a total collapse but they will lose their friendly nature and values shaping
their lives because inequity is going to explode. Randers asserts that
democratic liberal society will fail while strong governments like China will
be the winners.
After analysing the process briefly, it is not difficult to
say what could be done to prevent collapse. Before that, it is also important
to examine why nations did not take any precautions and why they could not understand what was happening. It is simply
because of the conflict of interests between the short-term interests of the
decision-making elites and the long-term interests of the society as a whole.
That is, business elites were doing advantageous things for themselves but they
were to the detriment of the whole
society. Overall, turning the present unsustainable course into a maintainable
course is simply the solution of that problem. That is, making rational choices,
such as reducing the inequality and population growth, is the key to
eradicating this problem. Using science to guide decisions, paired with
extraordinary leadership and exceptional goodwill, human society can progress
to higher levels of well-being. In brief, all major threats we are facing today
are problems entirely of our own making. Again, we are the ones who will
eradicate this. We should not forget that this is a challenging process. If we do
10 things correctly but 1 thing wrong,
we may face a total collapse. We should choose what to do and implement it after
thinking twice.
ENİS
KAAN BİRGİN